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No Change in World Cup Allocations

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Unread postby Taly » Thu Mar 3, 2011 10:53:06 am

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/no-change-in-world-cup-allocations/

CONCACAF got phucked. Africa keeps their 5 spots and CONCACAF is stuck with 3.5 spots. The result is lame.

CONCACAF had 2 teams advance out of group stage compared to Africa that had 1 team, Ghana.
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Unread postby finnfan » Thu Mar 3, 2011 11:00:44 am

The problem with CONCACAF is that the quality drops really quickly after the first few teams. I think 3.5 sounds about right. Difference in Africa is that they have a lot of countries that could easily qualify.

You cannot base this off of only on what happens to the teams that do qualify, but also what would happen to the teams that would qualify if the number was increased for a region.
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Unread postby Goonda » Thu Mar 3, 2011 11:14:17 am

This all seems pretty fair to me. What do we have in Concacaf?

1st tier: USA & Mexico are automatic spots pretty much.
2nd tier: Costa Rica, Honduras, and maybe Panama fight for the next full and half spots.
3rd tier: Who is next? T&T, Jamaica, Canada, etc.

The only teams we have currently in the FIFA top 50 are USA & Mexico (the next 3 are in the 60s), the CAF has 9 teams in the top 50 plus Algeria at 55. There is just way too much of a drop off between the tiers of CONCACAF countries.
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Unread postby LittleBlood » Thu Mar 3, 2011 11:30:18 am

Sounds about right. The only thing that really annoys me is that "half" might as well be zero, the difference between CONCACAF #4 and CONMEBOL #5/6 is too great. I like having certain specific central american teams "sneak" into the WC in the same way it seems that planty of african and asian clubs get in there. Tough to imagine anything but US, Mex and CR in that top 3, but obviously its been done before. Our qualifying zone just feels a little bland imho. Adding in an extra spot (or at least avoiding the half spot playing CONMEBOL) would be a nice touch, especially in a year where south america is already guaranteed 5 spots (4 + host).
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Unread postby LittleBlood » Thu Mar 3, 2011 11:37:47 am

Scratch that, looks like there is a draw for those last remaining "half" teams (4 of them so they "randomly" play another team and 2 winners are in). So seems fair enough then.

Goonda wrote:This all seems pretty fair to me. What do we have in Concacaf?

1st tier: USA & Mexico are automatic spots pretty much.
2nd tier: Costa Rica, Honduras, and maybe Panama fight for the next full and half spots.
3rd tier: Who is next? T&T, Jamaica, Canada, etc.


2nd Tier: Panama/El Slavador/Guatemala are about at the same level, with Honduras and CR a half tier better.
3rd tier: teams that HAVE qualified before... but would have to surprise us if they got their stuff together enough to make it back there.

With the proposed 2 groups X 4 teams per group I'd guess:
USA, MEX (qualify)
SLV, CR (3 and 4 playoff)
HON, PAN, GUA, T&T (almost but not quite)
:D
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Unread postby Goonda » Thu Mar 3, 2011 11:45:24 am

LittleBlood wrote:Scratch that, looks like there is a draw for those last remaining "half" teams (4 of them so they "randomly" play another team and 2 winners are in). So seems fair enough then.

Goonda wrote:This all seems pretty fair to me. What do we have in Concacaf?

1st tier: USA & Mexico are automatic spots pretty much.
2nd tier: Costa Rica, Honduras, and maybe Panama fight for the next full and half spots.
3rd tier: Who is next? T&T, Jamaica, Canada, etc.


2nd Tier: Panama/El Slavador/Guatemala are about at the same level, with Honduras and CR a half tier better.
3rd tier: teams that HAVE qualified before... but would have to surprise us if they got their stuff together enough to make it back there.

With the proposed 2 groups X 4 teams per group I'd guess:
USA, MEX (qualify)
SLV, CR (3 and 4 playoff)
HON, PAN, GUA, T&T (almost but not quite)
:D

I was working off of the FIFA world rankings, which are not very fond of El Salvador (117) and Guatemala (126) at the moment. I realize that these rankings are pretty volatile, but I feel that they still support the point that the drop in quality from 1-2 and 2-3 are pretty large.
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Unread postby LittleBlood » Thu Mar 3, 2011 2:56:51 pm

Fair enough, agreed. One thing thats kinda lame is that beyond qualifying, the only major tourney most of the CONCACAF teams see is Gold Cup, which is a joke of a competition. Most teams don't send their best players and no one really cares about the outcome. Every other continent seems to have a better, more respected tourney in the off-years. So with Gold Cup being such a deciding factor for these teams, it can really make the rankings a bit wonkier than normal.
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Unread postby Goonda » Thu Mar 3, 2011 3:14:18 pm

LittleBlood wrote:Fair enough, agreed. One thing thats kinda lame is that beyond qualifying, the only major tourney most of the CONCACAF teams see is Gold Cup, which is a joke of a competition. Most teams don't send their best players and no one really cares about the outcome. Every other continent seems to have a better, more respected tourney in the off-years. So with Gold Cup being such a deciding factor for these teams, it can really make the rankings a bit wonkier than normal.

It'll be interesting to see how (if?) that changes with the changes to the world cup qualifying format that CONCACAF came out with after the world cup. I would hope that it could raise the stature of the event, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Unread postby Clockwork Orange » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:04:52 pm

I think asia has too many spots at 4.5.

Australia + South Korea + Japan are all good, then you have the middle eastern countries (saudi arabia, bahrain, iraq, iran, etc) fighting for the 1.5 spot that's left, or like last world cup the joke that was north korea. When the 5th place in asia (bahrain last time) can't beat new zealand, I think they need one less spot to 3.5 - the big 3 get in, then the 4th place team gets to play new zealand.

South America did great last world cup, but hard to justify that over 1/2 of their countries (6) should be in the world cup, so they are currently good with 4.5 (realistically solid 5)

Really all in all it is pretty fair.


edit - I didn't see this part: "The only change is that the four teams who qualify for playoffs — one each from Concacaf, Asia, Oceania and South America — will be matched in a draw, instead of in fixed pairings of continents as in the past."

This is a win for concacaf, this way it is possible for both a team from South America and Concacaf to qualify.
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Unread postby tallguy » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:11:04 pm

personally, i think that Oceania deserves one spot to the WC, and that it should come at the expense of Asia. then, the play-in draw can be CONCACAF #4, South America #5, Asia #4, and Oceania #2.
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Unread postby Goonda » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:18:56 pm

Clockwork Orange wrote:I think asia has too many spots at 4.5...

The difference between AFC and CONCACAF for this is the number of teams in each tier.

Tier 1 - AFC 3 - CONCACAF 2
Tier 2 - AFC ~8-10 - CONCACAF ~3-5

I think they probably deserve one more than us. Besides, they have about a dozen more countries than us.
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Unread postby LittleBlood » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:19:19 pm

tallguy wrote:personally, i think that Oceania deserves one spot to the WC, and that it should come at the expense of Asia. then, the play-in draw can be CONCACAF #4, South America #5, Asia #4, and Oceania #2.


never gonna happen. what should Oceania's #2 be? Fiji? American Samoa? New Caledonia? Vanuatu?
I like NZ's play in the last world cup (trivia: they were the ONLY team in WC2010 that never lost a game!) and I'll root for them every time seeing as my wife's a kiwi, but with Australia now in Asia, giving Oceania a half spot is just about right.
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Unread postby Goonda » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:22:09 pm

LittleBlood wrote:never gonna happen. what should Oceania's #2 be? Fiji? American Samoa? New Caledonia? Vanuatu?

Tuvalu! They gave atdhe a place to go when ICE shut them down. They are ok in my book!
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Unread postby finnfan » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:33:12 pm

Tallguy probably did not realize that Australia is not in Oceania, but that they qualify from Asia.
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Unread postby tallguy » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:59:02 pm

finnfan wrote:Tallguy probably did not realize that Australia is not in Oceania, but that they qualify from Asia.

yep, i did forget about that. :dunce:
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